Ocean Freight Market Update — October 2025
The ocean freight market remains under significant pressure as global carriers continue their battle to stem falling rates. While this is not new territory for the industry, the scale of recent blank sailings (cancelled departures) is now starting to have a tangible impact on service reliability for many importers and exporters.
According to the Drewry Cancelled Sailings Tracker, between early October and early November, around 8% of scheduled sailings across major trades have been withdrawn, a clear sign that carriers are tightening capacity to slow the rapid rate declines seen through the summer.
Unfortunately, for shippers, this means more uncertainty and disruption in the short term.
Key Market Themes
1. Carriers Are Reducing Capacity to Protect Rates
With freight rates slipping on most major routes, carriers are responding by cancelling sailings and adjusting service rotations. This approach is designed to balance supply and demand, but it can result in fewer weekly departures, longer transit times, and last-minute vessel changes.
2. Service Reliability Is Being Redefined
Traditional on-time performance metrics are now only part of the picture. A ship that does not sail cannot be on time, and this growing pattern of cancellations is creating new challenges for supply chains that rely on consistency. Shippers should expect further disruption through the rest of Q4 as carriers continue to manage capacity aggressively.
3. Rates Are Still Soft, but Volatility Is Increasing
Spot rates remain under pressure, particularly on Asia–Europe and Transpacific routes, though we are beginning to see short-term fluctuations as blank sailings take effect. Rate volatility is likely to continue into the final months of the year, with modest increases possible if carriers succeed in tightening available capacity.
4. Port Congestion Risks Are Returning
With uneven vessel arrivals and bunching caused by service changes, some ports are reporting early signs of congestion. This can lead to additional dwell times, particularly for cargo transiting via key European hubs.
Our Advice to Customers
At Gateway Cargo, we recommend taking a proactive approach during this period of instability:
Book early and remain flexible — Allow additional lead time for bookings, as short-notice space availability is tightening.
Monitor sailing schedules closely — Cancellations are often announced within days of departure; we will continue to provide early updates on any affected services.
Review your routing options — In some cases, alternative ports or service loops may offer greater reliability.
Consider long-term agreements — For high-volume or time-sensitive shipments, fixed-rate or contract allocations can offer better predictability through volatile periods.
Looking Ahead
Despite the current turbulence, the underlying fundamentals of global trade remain resilient. Demand is expected to strengthen gradually into early 2026 as inventories normalise and new seasonal demand cycles begin. The key challenge for shippers will be navigating the coming months of capacity management and schedule disruption.
Gateway Cargo will continue to provide regular updates and market intelligence to help you plan ahead and keep your cargo moving efficiently.
If you would like tailored advice on routing, space management, or rate planning, please contact your Gateway Cargo representative or email info@gateway-cargo.com.